Deloitte released its annual holiday forecast this month, and the headline is encouraging. Holiday retail sales are projected to reach $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion from November through January, up 4.0% to 4.8% from last year.

But the more useful part of the forecast is how shoppers plan to get there. Deloitte expects consumers to keep leaning on promotions, digital tools and comparison shopping to stretch their budgets while still making the holidays special.

More spending. More scrutiny. That combination changes what a winning holiday message looks like.

01 | Growth Doesn't Mean Loose Wallets

A bigger season is not the same as an easier one.

Shoppers are spending, but they are doing it deliberately. They compare before they commit, they look for proof before they switch brands, and they want to feel good about the choice after the purchase.

For advertisers, that means the question isn't only "Are people buying?" It's "Why would they buy from us?"

02 | Value Is More Than a Discount

When budgets feel tight, the reflex is to lead with the lowest price. Sometimes that's the right call. Often it isn't.

Value can also mean:

•         Service people can count on

•         Local availability, today, not in a week

•         Quality that lasts past January

•         A business shoppers already know and trust

National retailers will win plenty of price wars this season. Local businesses win on the things a national retailer can't copy.

03 | Online Growth Starts With Offline Familiarity

Deloitte projects holiday e-commerce to grow 7.5% to 8.4%, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion. That's faster than overall retail.

It's tempting to read that as a reason to move everything to digital. The better read: the search, the click and the cart often start with a brand the shopper already recognizes. Familiarity built on trusted local TV and streaming is what makes the online moment go your way.

04 | Confidence Closes the Sale

In a value season, shoppers need a reason to feel confident, not just a reason to act.

Creative that explains what makes you different, shows real people and places, and stays consistent across screens gives them that confidence. A campaign that only shouts "sale" gives them one more thing to compare.

Spend Smart, Show Up Early

Holiday 2026 will reward the brands that understand how people are shopping, not just how much. Build the value case now, keep it consistent through the season, and save conversion weight for Thanksgiving week through Cyber Monday.

Connect with Hearst Pittsburgh to build a holiday plan that gives shoppers a reason to choose you, while fourth-quarter inventory is still available.

Sources: Deloitte 2026 holiday retail forecast